Real vs. Fake Trends
The most important indicator to figure out if an emerging trend will be successful is to ask yourself if people tell their friends about it.
To figure out if a product/market will live through the hype-cycle and succeed in the long run, see if the people are actually using it obsessively.
When the iPhone first came out, it barely sold any units compared to the big players at the time. But it succeeded because people who owned an iPhone used it for hours every day.
VR on the other hand gained a lot of traction in the press, but despite telling their friends about it, hardly anyone owning a VR headset actually uses it (I use mine about once a month).
Source: Sam Altman - How to Succeed with a Startup
This is post 089 of #100DaysToOffload.